At the Crossroads: London's Population Growth Now Depends on Immigration as Federal Cuts Loom
New research shows that natural population growth is approaching zero as international migration becomes London's lifeline.
London's future is at a critical turning point, according to new research by the London & Middlesex Local Immigration Partnership (LMLIP) Fact Sharing Work Group. Their latest "Matter of Facts" report reveals that, as births barely outpace deaths in the region, the city's continued growth now depends almost entirely on international migration, just as federal policy changes reduce immigration levels nationwide.
The report shows London CMA's population grew from approximately 510,200 in 2016 to an estimated 626,250 by 2024, adding more than 116,000 new residents in just eight years. However, what's changing dramatically is the source of this growth.
"From 2016 to 2024, declining natural growth further increased the prominence of international migration as the main driver of population growth in the London CMA," states the report, highlighting a fundamental shift in London's demographic patterns.
Source: Statistics Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-x/2025001/xls/CMACA_RMRAR_TOT_2001_2024.xlsx
The research paints a stark picture: between 2016 and 2021, London experienced steady natural population growth, with births exceeding deaths. However, the gap has narrowed significantly. Deaths have gradually increased while births remained relatively stable, with preliminary data for 2023-2024 showing both numbers at just over 5,400 births, barely outpacing deaths.
Meanwhile, international migration has surged. The net number of immigrants increased steadily from 1,730 in 2016-2017 to approximately 3,000 in 2020-2021 before doubling to over 6,000 over the subsequent three-year period due to COVID-19.
The explosion in non-permanent residents, such as international students and temporary workers, has been even more dramatic. London saw a sharp reversal after experiencing a net outflow during 2020-2021 (with 1,300 more departures than arrivals). Net non-permanent residents reached about 6,500 in 2021-2022, jumped to 13,200 in 2022-2023, and remained strong at an estimated 11,000 in 2023-2024.
This demographic shift comes at a pivotal moment. In October 2024, the federal government announced a 21% reduction in permanent resident targets for 2025 (from 500,000 to 395,000) and introduced new controls on temporary residents. International student permits have been capped at approximately 360,000 for 2024, and Provincial Nominee Program targets have been halved.
The implications extend far beyond simple population counts. London's economy has increasingly come to depend on immigrants across multiple sectors. Immigrants constitute a significant proportion of the healthcare workforce (18%), manufacturing (14%), and educational services (9%).
Manufacturing, London's second-largest employer of immigrants, currently reports a shortage of approximately 1,000 workers, a deficit projected to worsen as workers retire. International students make a substantial contribution to the local economy.
For longtime Londoners, this demographic shift directly affects business viability and tax revenue. Without continued population growth businesses might struggle to find workers, and municipal services could face funding challenges.
The housing market has already shown signs of impact. Recent data reveal that London's apartment vacancy rate rose to 2.9% in 2024 from 1.7% a year ago, with reduced demand from international students, driven by federal caps on study permits, playing a role in this shift.
Retention of immigrants presents another challenge. Despite being more highly educated than average residents, many newcomers face barriers to full integration. A concerning 60% of immigrants in southwestern Ontario reported experiencing some level of discrimination or racism in a three-year period. Employment difficulties, housing affordability, and social isolation further impact retention rates.
What can London do in response? While municipalities have limited constitutional authority over immigration, several strategies show promise:
The LMLIP provides a collaborative framework for addressing integration barriers. Our focus on creating a welcoming community, enhancing communication, and eliminating systemic barriers lays the foundation for effective, retention-focused settlement services.
The city's "Choose London - Innovative, Vibrant and Global" Newcomer Strategy represents another important initiative. It focuses on enhancing awareness, facilitating access, and active engagement to create necessary support for attracting and retaining newcomers.
Research indicates that family-sponsored immigrants and refugees exhibit the highest retention rates, remaining in their initial settlement communities at rates of 92.0% and 87.0%, respectively. London could develop targeted strategies to support these categories of newcomers.
As London faces this demographic crossroads, the fundamental takeaway is clear: the city's future population growth, which affects everything from business viability to tax revenue, now depends more on immigration policies made in Ottawa than on local birth rates.
For a city that added 116,000 new residents in eight years, the changing source of this growth represents both a challenge and an opportunity. How London responds to this demographic shift will shape its economic and social trajectory for decades to come.